BIG 10 OUTLOOK WITH 6 WEEKS LEFT

The College Football Season is over half finished. With the playoff selection committee ready to reveal their playoff rankings in 2 weeks, I thought it would be a good idea to take stock of where each team is in each conference and what to look for as we head down the stretch. Getting in position to make the playoffs or even to get bowl eligible will start to dominate the college football landscape. Starting with the Big 10, let’s take a look at where everyone is and what we should expect to see from each team moving forward.

 

BIG 10 EAST

 

TEAM	REC	WHAT TO WATCH FOR OVER LAST 6 WEEKS OF 2014
	6-1	All Michigan St. needs to do now is win. The Spartans get good games against Ohio St., Michigan & Maryland & if they win will be 11-1 & will be favored for the B1G Championship. For the Spartans to make the playoffs they’ll need some help. The loss to Oregon in Week 2 isn’t killer but the Ducks are getting better. If Oregon winds up 12-1 then they obviously get a spot ahead of Michigan State. You know the SEC champion is going to get a spot as is Florida St. if the Noles go 13-0 which seems likely. An 11-1 TCU team would be hard to keep out as would a 2nd SEC team. Vegas thinks that if Michigan St. gets into the playoffs they are most likely to win. They have to get there first.
	5-1	After losing to Virginia Tech, Ohio St. has gone 4-0 outscoring their opponents 224-69! The loss to Virginia Tech is brutal seeing how the Hokies are 4-3 (1-2) in the ACC! There is simply no way to spin the loss in a positive light unless VA Tech goes crazy, finishes the season 9-3 (6-2) & wins the ACC title which doesn’t seem likely. The Buckeyes do have games against Michigan St., Minnesota & Michigan left so they can look a lot better. Should they win out & win the B1G they’ll be 12-1, but they’ll need a ton of help. Any 1-loss team from a Power 5 conference will look better than Ohio St. as would Notre Dame. They need a lot of 2-loss teams & their name to help them.
	5-2	The Terps could win the Big 10 I suppose. If they win out they’d be 10-2 (7-1) but they would need Ohio St. to lose twice as one loss wouldn’t cut it as Ohio St. destroyed Maryland just a couple of weeks ago. Eve if Maryland winds up 11-2, it’s unlikely they get into the playoffs having losses to Ohio St. & West Virginia. A more likely prospect for Maryland is just concentrating on getting bowl eligible. They only need one more win bt their remaining schedule has road games against Penn St., Wisconsin & Michigan with home dates against Michigan St. & Rutgers. I think there are 3 winnable games left meaning Maryland could get to 8-4 (5-3) which would be huge in year 1 of the B1G.
	5-2	I didn’t think Rutgers would win 3 games when the season began so the fact that they are 5-2 through 7 games should have ever Knights fan celebrating a successful season. Rutgers playoffs hopes are abysmal. Their remaining schedule is nasty & even if they were to get to 10-2 they’d need a ton of help because of their loss to Penn State. As with Maryland, the focus should be on getting that 6th win, but Rutgers has: at Nebraska, Wisconsin, bye, Indiana, at Michigan St. & at Maryland left on the schedule. The home game against the Hoosiers looks like their best bet. Going 6-6 would be a huge success for Rutgers in their first season. A much better than expected year.
	3-4	At this point I don’t think there is anything that could save Brady Hoke’s job. There is no way Michigan can get into the playoffs and with road games against Michigan St. & Ohio St. left on the slate, the best the Wolverines can hope for this season is a bowl eligible 6-6. That would require getting 2 wins from Indiana (home), Northwestern (road) & Maryland (home). All 3 of those teams will be playing for their own bowl eligibility so they won’t be easy wins for Big Blue. This isn’t a bad situation to step into. Michigan could potentially have 18 returning starters for 2015. There is talent here & it’s still Michigan. They bailed on Rich Rodriguez too early. A good hire is needed.
	4-2	Penn St. still has half of its season left so there is a lot of football to be played. Penn St. could theoretically still win the B1G. They have Michigan St. & Ohio St. left on the schedule. Those teams play each other so Penn St. beating one of them would give that team 2 losses with PSU owning the tiebreaker. They would need the winner of OSU/MSU to lose again, but I guess it’s possible. With losses to Northwestern & Michigan, an 11-2 Penn St. team still wouldn’t make the playoffs. Penn St. could win 4 of their final 6 and that should be the focus. Not many people expected too much from James Franklin in his first season but if the Lions finish 8-4 (4-4), it would be an incredible year.
	3-4	If Nate Sudfeld is lost for the season, Indiana’s 2014 campaign is completely over as Xander Diamont isn’t ready and the Indiana defense is just terrible. Indiana could get to 5 wins if they take care of Penn St. & Purdue at home which is certainly feasible if Tevin Coleman carries the offense & the defense can hold opponents to less than 30pts. What hurts Indiana is they have 3 games left on the road against Michigan, Rutgers & Ohio State. Rutgers & Michigan are going to be playing for bowl eligibility themselves so Indiana won’t have easy road dates there. A 5-7 year would be a hold year for IU as they were 5-7 last season. The Bowling Green & Maryland losses were deathly.

 

BIG 10 WEST

 

TEAM	REC	WHAT TO WATCH FOR OVER LAST 6 WEEKS OF 2014
	6-1	Can you believe Minnesota can make the playoffs? The Gophers are 6-1 (3-0) right now. The scare from Purdue doesn’t help their cause from a cosmetic perspective but Minny gets Ohio St. & Iowa at home. What hurts the Gophers is their final 2 games which are road dates against Nebraska & Wisconsin. Let’s assume Minnesota gets to 11-1 & wins the B1G to get to 12-1! Their lone loss comes from TCU so the Gophers have to hope TCU keeps winning. At this point if TCU wins out they’ll most likely win the Big XII if Oklahoma beats Baylor. I think Minnesota would also need the Pac 12 to have a 2-loss champion & only 1 SEC team in the Final 4. If all that happens, they are in!
	6-1	Nebraska is in a good spot going forward. They just hammered a Northwestern team that beat Wisconsin. They do have to travel to Madison but that is the toughest game remaining & the Huskers get Minnesota in Lincoln. It’s hard to argue with Nebraska’s 27-22 loss to Michigan St. in East Lansing. It certainly would benefit Nebraska for Michigan St. to get to 11-1 so they could get a rematch against Sparty in the championship game. If Nebraska winds up 12-1 with their only blemish being a 5-pt loss at Michigan St., then it’ll be hard to keep them out of the playoffs. College football is better when Nebraska is dominating & college football has been waiting a long time.
	5-2	The loss this week to Maryland virtually kills Iowa, dropping the Hawkeyes to 5-2. Oddly enough Iowa could still win the B1G West because they still have games against Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota & Northwestern. If Iowa wins out they could be 10-2, but even an 11-2 season with a B1G championship wouldn’t help with losses to Iowa St. & Maryland. I think Iowa actually needs to focus on getting bowl eligible. They need 1 more win but their remaining schedule is: Northwestern, at Minnesota, at Illinois, Wisconsin & Nebraska. The Illinois game should give them at least 6 wins but Iowa has to be the most frustrating team in college football. They should be 7-0 right now.
	3-4	Injuries have just ravaged Northwestern all season long. I really thought the Wisconsin game would determine the B1G West & Northwestern won that game. Unfortunately the Cats lost their first 2 and then was hammered last week against Nebraska. They’ve also lost to Minnesota so not only is Northwestern not going to the playoffs, but it’s almost impossible for them to win the West. I don’t think they can win at Notre Dame so at best Northwestern gets to 7-5, but it might be time for them to worry about bowl eligibility. They have road games against the Irish & Iowa. That means they’d need to win all 3 against Michigan, Purdue & Illinois. I wonder if Pat Fitzgerald would ever leave?
	4-2	Losing at Northwestern is BRUTAL for Wisconsin, but not all is lost for the Badgers who actually have a pretty good team & a helluva coach in Gary Andersen. I don’t think the Badgers can make the playoffs even if they win out & win the B1G, finishing at 11-2. Losses to LSU & Northwestern would be too much, but Wisconsin does get Nebraska & Minnesota in Madison so there is a real possibility the Badgers could indeed finish 10-2 (7-1). The Badgers & Ohio St. are in the same boat to me. They are teams nobody is really talking about but who could end the season with great records. Can either team win a championship? No, but Wisconsin could finish 12-2 if they win out.
	3-5	Purdue has a rough road ahead of them, but over their last 3 games, the Boilermakers have averaged 36PPG, played Michigan St. really tough, beat Illinois & almost upset Minnesota! The road doesn’t get any easier for the Boilermakers as their next 2 games come against Nebraska & Wisconsin, but their last 2 games (Northwestern at home & Indiana on the road) look very winnable meaning Purdue could be a 5-win team needing a miracle win against either the Huskers or Badgers to get bowl eligible. It’s worth noting that Purdue was 1-11 last season. Earlier this year Purdue looked terrible, but with 8 games down, Purdue is in the bowl discussion which is amazing.
	3-4	The home loss to Purdue really put a damper on the season because I think nobody thought the Illini would beat Washington, Nebraska or Wisconsin. A win over the Boilermakers & Illinois would be sitting at 4-3 needing a couple of wins to get bowl eligible with Penn St., Northwestern & Minnesota left on the schedule. Instead, the Gophers are playing extremely well & Illinois gets them & Ohio St. in their next 2 games. Bowl eligibility is still on the table for Illinois, but their defense has been awful & that probably won’t change. When you look at the schedule, Illinois hasn’t beaten anyone and it wouldn’t surprise me if Illinois finished 3-9. A step backwards for HC Tim Beckman.