Fantasy Gunslinger

Football with an Emphasis on Fantasy & Gambling

2017 NFL PLAYOFF SEEDINGS AFTER WEEK 10

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NFC ANALYSIS

1. Eagles: At 8-1 the Eagles only have road games against the Seahawks, Cowboys & Rams to worry about. Right now the Eagles don’t have any tiebreakers over the Saints, Vikings & Rams which is interesting. A loss to the Rams would push LA over Philly if they both ended up with the same record. Right now the Eagles are 6-0 against NFC teams.

2. – 4. Vikings, Saints, Rams: It’s impossible to tell when it actually happens because the games in the early weeks are sometimes variable & you don’t know how the season is going to play out, but the Week 1 game between Minnesota & New Orleans rears it’s ugly head in determining who gets the #2 seed. Because the Vikings beat the Saints, Minnesota is currently the #2 seed. The difference between #2 and #3 is so huge in the playoff seedings. The #2 team gets an extra week of rest and a guaranteed home games in the divisional round. The #3 seed is forced to play a wild card game & will play on the road in the divisional round if they win their wild card game. It’s amazing to think that a Week 1 game is the determining factor in who gets the #2 seed if the season ended today!

5. Panthers: The only 7-3 team in the NFC. Carolina is only a half game behind New Orleans at this point, but their remaining game against the Saints is in the Superdome as Drew Brees and his boys beat Carolina in Charlotte 34-13 in Week 3. It’s worth noting that Carolina is 4-3 in the NFC while the Seahawks are 4-2. Seattle gets the Falcons at home this weekend so a win by Seattle would push the Seahawks into the 5th seed assuming the Rams win.

6. Seahawks: The only 6-3 team in the NFC. Seattle is still in play for the NFC West title so they need to keep playing well. They beat the Rams in LA earlier in the season so getting a win over LA in Seattle would do wonders for their chances to win the West.

7.-10. Falcons, Lions, Packers, Cowboys: The Lions own the tiebreaker over Green Bay in the North. Atlanta beat both the Lions & Cowboys so  Atlanta slide easily into the #7 seed. The Lions edge Dallas by common games record. Green Bay beat Dallas which is why Atlanta is #7, Detroit is #8, Green Bay is #9 and Dallas is #10. All 4 teams are 5-4 so they are just a game behind Seattle for the last wild card spot. Atlanta is going to have to become more consistent but they are still the most interesting team of this group because their conference record is 4-1. Atlanta also has tiebreakers over Detroit, Green Bay & Dallas. The Falcons get a huge opportunity this week when they play the Seahawks. The game is in Seattle, but if Atlanta can get a pivotal road win, they’d vault into the #6 seed in the playoffs & they might not look back.

11.-12. Redskins, Cardinals: Both teams at 4-5 with the Redskins owning the tiebreaker because of conference record. At 4-5, both Arizona & Washington are 2-games out of the #6 seed with 7 games to play. It’s not out of the question they could make a huge run. If one of the teams were to win out they’d finish 11-5 which almost certainly guarantees a playoff spot, but with 10 teams ahead of them and 11 teams in Arizona’s case, both the Redskins & Cardinals might be a little too far out unless they make significant runs.

13.-14. Bucs, Bears: Both teams are 3-6 so there is no playoffs going for either team. TB beat Chicago in Week 2 so this is a lot like Minnesota/New Orleans although instead of that early season game determining the #2/#3 seeds, the Week 2 game between the Bears & Bucs determines the #13/#14 seeds!

15. Giants: With their loss to the 49ers, the G-Men are likely to finish as the 16th seed unless they can somehow win another game. That doesn’t look promising.

16. San Francisco: The 49ers got a win! Even if they finish 1-15, if the Giants finish 1-15, SF will hold the tiebreaker and get the #15 seed forcing New York to dead last place in the NFC!

WILD CARD GAMES AFTER WEEK 10

#6 SEATTLE @ #3 NEW ORLEANS
#5 CAROLINA @ #4 LOS ANGELES

The NFC is definitely seeing a changing of the guard when it comes to QBs. In the Wild Card we have Cam Newton (age-28), Jared Goff (age-23), Russell Wilson (age-29) and Drew Brees (age-39) in the wild card with their ages being that when the playoffs are taking place. That’s also leaving out Carson Wentz (age-25) who currently is 8-1 with the Eagles! Brees is still a part of the old guard & he might actually win another Super Bowl before it’s all said and done this season, but the NFC is definitely seeing a change. These playoff matchups look likely at this point although there is still quite a bit of room to move. In both cases I think the home teams cruise setting up a divisional round between the Rams/Eagles and the Saints/Vikings. The Goff/Wentz rivalry could get cranked up REALLY FAST if both of these guys become the Brady/Manning of their era.



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AFC ANALYSIS

1.-2. Steelers, Patriots: No change from last week. The Steelers still have the edge in conference record by virtue of playing an extra conference game. At some point that will even out, but it might not matter because Pittsburgh & New England play each other.

3.-4. Chiefs, Titans: The Chiefs get the #3 seed over Tennessee by virtue of conference record. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the AFC while the Titans are 5-3. This is a tricky spot to be in for both squads. There really is no excuse as to why Kansas City shouldn’t finish with as good a record as New England. Given that KC took out the Patriots in Week 1 (notice a theme here!) it would mean the Chiefs would own the tiebreaker over Bill Belichick’s boys which could mean eventually the Chiefs host New England at Arrowhead instead of the Chiefs having to travel to Foxboro in what would almost certainly be a loss. The Titans of course are not in the best of situations. The #4 seed is going to have it tough no matter what because they are looking at going on the road in the divisional round to Kansas City, Pittsburgh or New England. Of course, all of that could change if Tennessee & Jacksonville keep winning. Keep winning and you can force yourself into the top-2 spots.

5. Jaguars: Jacksonville is tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South, both sitting at 6-3. Tennessee beat Jacksonville earlier in the season which gives them the edge. I think at this point both Tennessee & Jacksonville are playoff bound given the relative futility of the rest of the AFC at this point. I think the Jags are a dark horse candidate to win the AFC. Given their schedule, Jacksonville could easily finish the season 13-3.

6. Bills: The only 5-4 team in the AFC. Very tough to see what Buffalo is trying to do here. They go out and trade for Kelvin Benjamin to give the offense a little more firepower, but now they are sitting QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of rookie QB Nathan Peterman. It’s an odd situation given that the Bills have an excellent shot at snagging that last wild card slot. The wild card game against the #3 seed on the road wouldn’t be easy, but the Bills defense is salty enough to keep them in any playoff game.

7.-9. Ravens, Raiders & Dolphins: These are the three teams that could take over for the Bills in that #6 seed should Buffalo start faltering considerably. All 3 teams have flaws to be sure, but all 3 can be good at times. If the Ravens can commit to the run on a consistent basis, I think they have an excellent chance to not only get to the playoffs, but win a game or two. The Raiders are wildly inconsistent to say the least. You never know what you are going to get from them on a weekly basis. The Dolphins at times look terrible (lost to the Ravens 40-0) but if Jay Cutler is healthy & the offense can start clicking, they can be dangerous. These teams are all in different divisions, but the competition between these 3 and the Bills is one of the more fascinating storylines right now.

10. Jets: The only 4-6 team in the AFC. Tough loss to Tampa Bay. It was fun while it lasted but the Jets are going into a bye week 1.5 games behind the Bills. Their remaining 6 games are brutal and they are likely to finish 5-11. Losing to Tampa Bay this past week might have taken the wind out of them, but this is a young team & could steal a win or two down the stretch.

11.-14. Texans, Bengals, Chargers, Broncos: These are all very flawed teams. The Texans are without their QB. The Bengals need a new HC. The Chargers are the unluckiest team in team sports history and the Broncos are also dealing with no established QB who can play at a decent level. All of these teams are 3-6. The Chargers have a better common opponent record than Denver so they are ahead of the Broncos. Between Houston, Cincinnati & Los Angeles, everything breaks by conference record with Houston at #11, Cincinnati #12 and LA at #13.

15. Colts: The only 3-7 team in in the AFC. This isn’t a good football team to be sure, but watching them play Pittsburgh, you start to wonder if they aren’t closer than they seem. At 3-7 they aren’t getting to the playoffs.

16. Browns: Well at least they didn’t lose this week.

WILD CARD GAMES AFTER WEEK 10

#6 BUFFALO @ #3 KANSAS CITY
#5 JACKSONVILLE @ #4 TENNESSEE

No changes from last week. You have to wonder though how much longer Buffalo can hold onto the #6 seed if they are turning their hopes to a rookie QB. If not Buffalo then I think either Baltimore or Miami are your best bets to getting that last spot. Oakland is a long shot but if the Raiders would be able to get the final Wild Card slot, it would be a tremendous wild card game pitting too hated rivals against each other in KC & Oakland!

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November 16, 2017 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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