No Sleep Till Football

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NCAA FOOTBALL POWER 25 – 2016 WEEK 14

The last ranking before the final rankings. As you can see, I’d have Alabama, Ohio St., Michigan & Clemson in the playoffs. The committee is going with Washington over Michigan and given the circumstances it makes perfect sense. I might make a separate post about this at a later date, but one thing that kept coming back to me while watching Virginia Tech/Clemson in the ACC Championship game was this thought, “What if the ACC is the worst conference in college football?” There was a lot of talk about Washington potentially not making the playoffs because they played ridiculous teams in their non-conference slate and the Pac 12 was somewhat down, but could you apply the same metric to the ACC? It’s hard in Clemson’s case because they do have two non-conference wins over SEC schools in Auburn & South Carolina. They also have wins over Louisville and Florida State, two schools who are probably better than any team Washington has faced the entire season that they beat (they lost to USC). Hey I’m not complaining. Clemson’s in and I have them in too, but I wonder just how good the ACC really was in 2016.

RANK TEAM COMMENTS
#1 Computer Hope As if they needed to make a statement, Alabama DEMOLISHED Florida 54-16 in the SEC Championship holding the Gators to ZERO yards rushing and forcing 3 Gator turnovers. The Tide really don’t have a Heisman candidate outside of Jalen Hurts who isn’t being considering a potential winner. It goes to show you the balance of the team. WR Calvin Ridley & TE OJ Howard are NFL stars in the making and Alabama rarely uses them. This squad might be historically great if 15-0.
#2 Computer Hope It sort of bothers me that Ohio State is in the playoffs despite not even winning the Big 10 East, but it actually does make some sense when you think about it. It’s absurd to put 10-2 Oklahoma over Ohio St. when the Buckeyes beat the Sooners 45-24 in Norman. Ohio St. also beat Michigan. That leaves Penn State. Sure Ohio St. lost to the Nittany Lions, but Penn St. has a loss to Pittsburgh that Ohio St. doesn’t have. This also reinforces that ALL regular season games matter, and I LOVE that!
#3 Computer Hope Michigan can’t complain all that much. It’s one thing for Ohio St. to be 11-1 after having a bad day against Penn St. to get a playoff nod, but Michigan has a couple of losses and wound up in 3rd place in the Big 10 East. At least the Buckeyes can say they have a 1st place record. Michigan now gets Florida St. in the Orange Bowl which isn’t a bad consolation prize. A win there puts Michigan at 11-2 and Harbaugh at 21-5 in his first two seasons in Ann Arbor! And maybe Peppers gets the Heisman!
#4 Computer Hope The 42-35 win over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game looks closer than it actually was. Clemson never really was in trouble. The Hokies would pull to within a TD and then Clemson would score once or twice to get back to a big lead. It doesn’t really matter because it doesn’t change anything but I was happy to see the committee slide Clemson into the #2 spot ahead of Ohio State. Clemson’s loss was to Pittsburgh who beat Penn St. who beat Ohio State. The Tigers deserve #2.
#5 Computer Hope How amazing is Clay Helton’s first season at USC? At one point the Trojans were 1-3 & there were rumors swirling that Helton wouldn’t survive the season. He made the switch to Sam Darnold at QB and USC ripped off 8 straight wins & are playing in the Rose Bowl! I know they are my power rankings, but if Michigan & Clemson lose while USC hammers Penn St., I’d move the Trojans to #3 in the final rankings. At this very minute they are the 2nd best team in the NCAA behind Alabama.
#6 Computer Hope The Huskies put an exclamation point on the season with a dismantling of Colorado 41-10! Sure they won by 31, but they dominated in every facet of the game. QB Jake Browning threw for 2TD. Myles Gaskin & Lavon Coleman each ran for over 100 yards. UW had the ball for almost 39 minutes! The defense held Colorado to just 9 first downs and 163 total yards. I think the Huskies could have beaten either Ohio St. or Clemson so it’s a tough draw to get Alabama, but they’ll put up a fight.
#7 Computer Hope BIG 10 CHAMPIONS! In just his 3rd year at Penn St., James Franklin has Penn St. winning the Big 10 and playing in the Rose Bowl! What a comeback! It’s tough to decide who has the better comeback story: Franklin bringing Penn St. back to prominence or Tom Crean bringing Indiana basketball back to prominence? You could make a TREMENDOUS case that the playoff teams should be Penn St., Alabama, Oklahoma & USC. The Pittsburgh loss cost PSU one of the playoff spots.
#8 Computer Hope I thought Oklahoma would beat the Cowboys by 20 points. Instead they beat them by 18, 38-20. I thought Oklahoma St. would keep it close for awhile before Oklahoma pulled away. The game was tied 17-17 at the half before OU outscored OK-State 21-3 in the 2nd half. If the Sooners destroy Auburn in the Sugar Bowl, they’ll have won 10 straight games. Assuming Ohio St. & Alabama play in the championship, that could very well mean Oklahoma is the #3 team in the nation by season’s end.
#9 Computer Hope Playing for a Rose Bowl, Wisconsin completely disintegrated in the 2nd half being outscored 24-3 en route to losing 38-31 in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Watching that game, I couldn’t figure out just what in the hell went wrong with the Badgers secondary. Trace McSorely would under throw balls and sometimes make bad passes entirely yet PSU receivers would haul them in inexplicably! What a tough way to end the regular season. Even worse? They get W.Michigan in th Cotton Bowl!
#10 Computer Hope LSU got a whale of an opponent in Louisville when they play in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Eve. The bowl game might be more important for LSU than almost any other team in football. A win certainly sets the table for LSU going forward with Ed Orgeron at the helm trying to replicate what Dabo Swinney has built at Clemson. A loss could create quite a few questions. Getting Lane Kiffin as OC after the season would also be a MAJOR coup and would be seen as a huge win over Alabama.
#11 Computer Hope Colorado can’t complain too much about losing the Pac 12 and losing out on the Rose Bowl. Almost every single publication picked the Buffaloes to finish last in the Pac 12 South. They won the South & finished 10-3! They also get Oklahoma St. in the Alamo Bowl which is a game they can win & would give UC an 11-3 final record, their best since 1996! I think Coach Mac stays in Boulder and Colorado doesn’t go anywhere. It’ll be tougher with USC getting good but Colorado should do very well.
#12 Computer Hope I like Auburn and I really like Gus Malzahn but drawing Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl is about the worst thing that could have happened to them. The War Eagle nation isn’t going to think about the fact that Auburn started 1-3 and ended up in a New Year’s Six Bowl if the Sooners blow them out. They’ll be thinking that Auburn finished 1-3 with losses to Oklahoma, Alabama & Georgia and Malzhan will find himself on a very hot seat in 2017. Auburn has to be perfect to pull out a victory.
#13 Computer Hope The ACC Championship didn’t go the way Virginia Tech had hoped, but I think they showed out well against Clemson. The Hokies fought hard the entire game before falling 42-35. I was very impressed how the team competed even though there were many chances to fold. It has been a tremendous year in Justin Fuente’s first season. An ACC Coastal championship & a shot at 10 wins if they beat Arkansas in the Belk Bowl which is entirely possible. They’ll be even better next season.
#14 Computer Hope Oklahoma St. actually did a pretty good job moving the football against Oklahoma, but the defense couldn’t keep Oklahoma off the field & that resulted in lots of points for the Sooners and an eventual loss for Oklahoma State. Maybe OSU gets a win if the game is in Stillwater? The Cowboys will get to 10 wins if they beat Colorado in the Alamo Bowl. That will probably be a tall order as I don’t expect Coach Mac to let the Buffaloes coast. That said, this has been an underrated football team.
#15 Computer Hope Dana Holgorsen had to reinvent the Mountaineers program in his image & the finished product is almost complete. If you believe the building block starting point was 2013 when WVU went 4-8, note that in 2014 they improved to 7-6 and then 8-5 in 2015. This year WVU is 10-2 with a shot at 11-2 if they defeat Miami-FL in the Russell Athletic Bowl. The only hurdle left is Oklahoma. The trick now is keeping Holgorsen in Morgantown, something West Virginia couldnt’ do with Rich Rodriguez.
#16 Computer Hope Hard to hammer Washington St. for finishing 7-2 in the Pac 12 considering their only losses were to the Pac 12 South and Pac 12 North champions although they did manage to avoid USC. I still feel like this season is somewhat of a “could have been” season for Mike Leach and the Cougars. They shouldn’t have lost to E.Washington & Boise St. this year meaning 8-4 should be 10-2. That said, a bowl game against Minnesota should put them at 9-4. Back to back 9 wins seasons since 2002-2003.
#17 Computer Hope A lot of people are knocking Pat Narduzzi for Pittsburgh’s lack of defense, but I’d be careful. While it is true that the Panthers allowed 35.6PPG this season, Pittsburgh ranks #10 in the country in sacks and #37 in tackles for loss. They also ranked 2nd in the ACC in QB hurries. This is the kind of defense that can get SCARY good SCARY fast. Pittsburgh’s takeaways don’t match the defensive production. When that starts happening, the Panthers could reach into being a top-10 type of team.
#18 Computer Hope Destroy LSU in the Citrus Bowl and a lot of concerns about Louisville go away pretty fast. Lose to the Tigers in the Citrus Bowl and all of a sudden you have a 9-4 Louisville squad that dropped their last 3 games and lived the entire season on a Week 3 win over Florida State. It also won’t look fantastic for Lamar Jackson if the Redbirds lose to LSU either as it would have been a great statistical season feasting on the dregs of the ACC. Petrino still hasn’t found the magic he had from 2003-2006.
#19 Computer Hope I simply can’t rank FSU ahead of Louisville given how the Cardinals hammered the Noles. If a loss to Pittsburgh early in the season essentially cost Penn St. a chance at being in the playoffs, then a Louisville blowout win can keep a 9-3 Louisville team ahead of a 9-3 Florida St. team. That will change if FSU can beat Michigan in the Orange Bowl! To be fair I think FSU is a lot better than #19. The loss to Louisville was just one of those days & their other losses were to Clemson & UNC.
#20 Computer Hope Like Washington St. this seems like a year that “could” have been for the Hawkeyes. Coming off a 12-2 season with the firepower they had returning, Iowa shouldn’t have dropped games to North Dakota St. and Northwestern meaning their 8-4 should be 10-2. They draw a VERY beatable Florida team in the Outback Bowl so at least the Hawkeyes could get to 9 wins. An 11-2 season on the back of a 12-2 season would have been huge for the program though. Football is better when Iowa wins.
#21 Computer Hope Ouch, Arkansas picked up a bad draw in the bowl game getting a feisty Virginia Tech squad in the Belk Bowl which is played in Charlotte, the scene of the ACC Championship game. It’s a bad draw in a way because the Razorbacks finished the season 4-5 in their last 9 games. A loss would put them at 4-6 in their last 10 but would also have them finish 7-6 which is a game worse than last season. Arkansas can hang with anyone when they are playing well, but this might be game they feel pressure.
#22 Computer Hope Temple just didn’t beat Navy, they CRUSHED the Middies when Navy had EVERYTHING to play for. Western Michigan had a tough time beating Ohio 29-23 so if Navy blows out Temple, the committee had to give thought to jumping Navy ahead of the Broncos. Instead, Temple puts the hammer down & takes home an AAC championship! That’s Matt Rhule’s 2nd 10-win season and he could get to 11 wins with a win over Wake Forest. If you are Oregon, how do you not hire this guy?
#23 Computer Hope People lost sight of Stanford I think because at one point they were 4-3 with the 3 losses coming within a 4-game stretch. That’s tough to overcome but their losses were to Washington (13-1), Washington St. (8-4) and Colorado (10-3). The Cardinal draw North Carolina in the Sun Bowl, a game they could win and get to 10-3. It’ll be interesting to see if Christian McCaffrey comes back for his senior season. It feels like he has unfinished business. If he comes back, Stanford is a title contender.
#24 Computer Hope ROW THE BOAT TO 13-0! It wasn’t the prettiest game but the Broncos got by Ohio 29-23 in the MAC Championship game to finish the season 13-0! The Navy loss guaranteed WMU a trip to a New Year’s Six Bowl and they draw Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl! To be honest, this was a great draw for the Broncos because they’ll have a decent chance at beating Wisconsin. A team that likes to run will typically keep scores down so W.Michigan could be in a close game where anything could happen.
#25 Computer Hope How great does South Florida look now that the season is over and they are sitting on a 10-2 record with their only losses coming against Temple and Florida State!? Drawing South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl seems a little thin but it would give USF a chance to finish 11-2. HC Willie Taggart has truly done a fantastic job. He did an outstanding job at W.Kentucky before here and now he’s a hot coaching commodity. Does Taggart play the long game & hope for the Big XII?

DROPPING OUT

#25 NAVY MIDSHIPMEN: Talk about the worst time to throw up on yourself!? It was a tough loss but Navy still has Army to play next week and Louisiana Tech to play in the bowl game. Both games should be wins meaning Navy could finish the season 11-3 with a bowl win along with an AAC West division championship. The 11 wins would match last year’s totals giving Navy back-to-back 11-win seasons for the first time in school history and 22-5 record over the last 2 seasons!

 

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December 6, 2016 - Posted by | Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Colorado, Florida St., Iowa, Louisville, LSU, Michigan, Navy, NCAA, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Penn St., Pittsburgh, Power 25, South Florida, Stanford, Temple, USC, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington St., Week 14, West Virginia, Western Michigan, Wisconsin

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