No Sleep Till Football

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NCAA FOOTBALL POWER 25 – 2016 WEEK 12

RANK TEAM COMMENTS
#1 Computer Hope It took Alabama a little while to get started playing Chattanooga, but the final ended up being another blowout with the Tide winning 31-3. The only thing left for Alabama to do is take care of business in the Iron Bowl and they guaranteed their spot as the #1 seed in the college football playoff as I don’t suspect Florida will pose much of a theat. In 9 of Alabama’s 11 wins, the Tide defense has give up 14 or fewer points. Alabama is giving up 1.18TD/game defensively. Only LSU is better.
#2 Computer Hope The Buckeyes were a special teams play away from losing to Michigan St. which would have been a disaster! The past month has proven to be a doubtful month for Ohio State. Sure they have the 62-3 win over Nebraska, but how good is Nebraska really? Also in that month is the loss to Penn St., a 1-point win over Michigan St., a 4-point win over Northwestern and a 7-point win over Wisconsin. The playoff committee wants Ohio St. in. You can see it, but they have to beat Michigan.
#3 Computer Hope The 20-10 win over Indiana in the Big House isn’t as bad as it looks. Michigan still looked fantastic on defense holding IU QB Richard Lagow in check along with Indiana’s running game. Offensively John O’Korn didn’t look good at all, but Michigan stayed with the program and ran the ball 50 times for 225yds/2TD. De’Veon Smith 158 himself. They’ll need to play A LOT better next week in Columbus if they want to win the Big 10 East & finish 11-1. Losing Wilton Speight hurts.
#4 Computer Hope While Michigan & Ohio St. were struggling, Wisconsin was in West Lafayette giving Purdue a 49-20 thrashing. Like Alabama, the Badgers had a little trouble waking up but exploded for 35 points in the 2nd quarter to take a 35-10 lead into the half. Wisconsin dominated time of possession holding onto the ball for almost 39 minutes. They played Wisconsin football running it 56 times with Corey Clement going for 112yds. Beat Minnesota this week and you are Big 10 West champs.
#5 Computer Hope There was some thought that Wake Forest could make things interesting against the Tigers, but Clemson scored 21 first quarter points to set the tone en route to a convincing 35-13 road win. RB Wayne Gallman has his biggest game of the season rushing for 161yds/2TD. That gives Gallman 831yds for the season and I thought for sure he’d be over 1,000 but this actually just his 4th game over the 100 mark. With potentially 4 games to go, the junior from Georgia should reach 1,000 yards!
#6 Computer Hope The 36-14 win over UCLA gave USC their 7th straight victory. In those 7 games the Trojans are +140 in point differential. Alabama is also 7-0 in their last 7 with their point differential at +191. In those 7 wins, USC QB Sam Darnold is 162/236 (69%) for 2,039yds (291yds/G) with 22TD/7INT. Right now, Darnold is playing like a Heisman candidate and the Trojans are arguably the #2 team in the nation. If Utah beats Colorado they are the Pac 12 South champions. Outstanding season.
#7 Computer Hope How do you get over a loss to USC? You hammer Arizona State 44-18! QB Jake Browning didn’t have his best game against the Sun Devils, but Myles Gaskin got loose and the Huskies defense did a fantastic job shutting down the ASU running attack while also wrecking ASU QB Manny Wilkins for 6 sacks and a pick. When UW’s pass rush can get off like this they are nearly unstoppable. They’ll need a big effort next week against Washington St. with the Pac 12 North title up for grabs.
#8 Computer Hope Rutgers stinks and you can make an argument they aren’t even really a Big 10 team, but going on the road within the conference and hammering an opponent 39-0 is impressive. Saquon Barkely, but Penn St. is winning because the defense is playing with tremendous swag. The Nittany Lions have an opportunity to create history here. If they don’t let down against Michigan St., they likely win the Big 10 East. If they can upend Wisconsin they can win the Big 10 and get to the playoffs!
#9 Computer Hope The 38-24 win over Washington St. sealed the deal for me. I’ve been pulling for Colorado and Coach MacIntyre all season, but on the field Saturday it really looked like Wazzou was bigger, stronger & faster. It didn’t matter. Colorado pulled away when it mattered most and ended up with a 38-24 win and control of their own destiny. Beat Utah and the Buffs finish 10-2 as Pac 12 South champs. Can they beat Washington? Yes I think so. I think they’ll be brimming with confidence by then.
#10 Computer Hope West Virginia was at home with everything to play for. It didn’t matter. Oklahoma walked into Morgantown and went up 34-0 before the Mountaineers even had time to blink en route to a 56-28 victory. It might be time to forget the losses to Ohio St. & Houston early in the season. The Sooners have won 8 straight and are the only Big XII team left undefeated in conference play. Beat Oklahoma St. and Oklahoma will be Big XII champions with a 9-game winning streak. Is it enough?
#11 Computer Hope I’m not completely willing to jump ship on Louisville just because they were blown out by Houston. Lamar Jackson is still arguably the most dynamic QB in college football and even with the loss he should still be the favorite to win the Heisman. Sometimes you have bad games and remember that Louisville is still 9-2. The playoffs are gone but beat Kentucky & win your bowl game. That would put Louisville at 11-2 with incredible momentum for 2017 because Jackson will return in ’17.
#12 Computer Hope War Eagle had no hangovers from their loss to Georgia last week, pasting Alabama A&M 55-0 behind Kam Martin’s 176 rushing yards & Kerryon Johnson’s 108 rushing yards. Auburn can’t win the SEC West even if they upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa next week, but the season has to feel extremely good considering the way it started. Auburn started off the year 1-2 but then went 7-1 in their next 8. Maybe they can’t win the Iron Bowl, but a bowl win would give Auburn a 9-4 record to end.
#13 Computer Hope It’s not your older brother’s TCU team, but walking into Ft. Worth and destroying the Frogs 31-6 is impressive nonetheless! Justin Hill and Chris Carson combined to rush for 300 yards on 33 carries, completely steamrolling the TCU defense which is something we aren’t used to seeing under Gary Patterson. Now BEDLAM! I think Oklahoma St. makes things interesting with a win especially if a couple of the other conference champions wind up having a couple of losses. It could change.
#14 Computer Hope Essentially LSU was done in by a defensive brain cramp that led to a 98-yard TD pass from Austin Appleby to Tyrie Cleveland. Without that play LSU doesn’t lost 16-10 but wins 10-9. Theoretically. I can’t hammer the Tigers too much. Lenoard Fournette wasn’t 100% for this game & he probably makes a difference too. LSU has arguably the best or 2nd best defense in the nation, but they have issues offensively. If they can score 20 points, I’d venture to say they are unbeatable. Tough loss.
#15 Computer Hope The Razorobacks did everything they could to give the game to Mississippi St., but Arkansas held on and beat the Bulldogs 58-42! It was the highest scoring output against the MSU defense all season! Austin Allen had an outstanding game tossing for 303yds/2TD. RB Rawleigh Williams had a career game going for 205yds/4TD on only 16 carries! It was the most yards & TDs Williams has ever had in a game. When the Hogs are on, they are arguably the 2nd best team in the nation.
#16 Computer Hope I acutally thought Washington St. looked bigger, more physical and faster than Colorado on Saturday night, but the Buffaloes were able to turn it on late & leave Wazzou in the dust 38-24. To be honest, it doesn’t matter. Washington St. was going to have to beat Washington regardless of the outcome with Colorado if they wanted to win the Pac 12 North. That doesn’t change. I will say this however, after watching the Cougs play Colorado, I think they have a shot at beating Washington.
#17 Computer Hope The 30-28 loss to Oregon hurts. The Ducks eliminated Utah from any hope of winning the Pac 12 championship. Even if the Utes manage to beat Colorado in Boulder next week, they can’t leap USC in the Pac 12 South standings. Utah feels like the Kansas City Chiefs of college football. They’ve done a good job winning the turnover margin & playing their kind of football which controls the ball and runs it. It’s not sexy but it wins games. Unfortunately for Utah, it didn’t win them enough.
#18 Computer Hope QB Josh Dobbs is playing out of his mind the last 3 games and offensively the Volunteers are averaging 56PPG over their last three games, all wins. The problem is that Tennessee gave up 36 points to Kentucky a week ago and 37 points to Missouri this past Saturday! Where in the world has the defense gone? With Florida beating LSU, the Vols can’t win the East, but they can still get to 10-3 if they beat Vandy to end the season & win the bowl game. Somehow, 10-3 feels disappointing.
#19 Computer Hope Lost in all the talk about Alabama and the SEC West is the job Jim McElwain has done at Florida. With Florida’s 16-10 win over LSU in Baton Rouge no less, Florida clinched the SEC East for the 2nd straight time. All McElwain does is win SEC East championships! In his 2 seasons, McElwain is 18-6 overall and 13-3 in SEC play! Even more impressive is that he’s done this with essentially no QB and a very good defense. Can you imagine how good the Gators will be with a decent offense?
#20 Computer Hope Notre Dame is a lot better football team than their 4-7 record would indicate so I don’t think you can understate what a great win it was for Virginia Tech to go into South Bend and get a come from behind 34-31 victory over the Irish. If nothing else the team has to be riding high on confidence. The Hokies still have to take care of business against Virginia to lock down the ACC Coastal, but if they can beat the Wahoos, they’ll get a shot at Clemson. I think Virginia Tech could stun.
#21 Computer Hope Houston beat the brakes off Louisville 35-10 in a defensive effort for the ages. The Cougars defense held Louisville QB Lamar Jackson to 33 yarsd rushing on 25 carries! They also sacked him 11 times and recorded 9 QB hurries. True frosh DT Ed Oliver had a herculean type game and Oliver has to be in the running to be a 1st Team All-American has a freshman! When Houston is firing on defense that are INCREDIBLY tough to beat. Beat Memphis and the Cougars can finish 10-2.
#22 Computer Hope It’s Boise St. and the Broncos are 10-1 so you have to rank them right? Boise St. hammered UNLV this past week 42-25 behind RB Jeremy McNichols and his 206 rushing yards & 4TD. Boise St. has a pretty darn good set of triplets. McNichols has rushed for 1575yds/22TD while QB Brett Rypien has passed for 3025yds/22TD. WR Thomas Sperbeck has 1070 receiving yards & 9TD of his own. Oddly enough, Boise cannot win the Mountain West unless Wyoming loses to New Mexico.
#23 Computer Hope Maryland isn’t great so Nebraska’s 28-7 win shouldn’t raise any eyebrows but I think the Cornhuskers have to be fairly pleased with the play of QB Ryker Fyfe. The senior completed 60+% of his passes against Maryland which is something Nebraska fans rarely see with Tommy Armstrong under center. Nebraska is a solid team with Armstrong at QB but sometimes a team gets stuck with a QB that can’t take them to that next level. Armstrong as been that way for the Cornhuskers.
#24 Computer Hope UTSA is likely to become bowl eligible next week so A&M’s 23-10 win over the Roadrunners isn’t that bad. This is simply a different team without Trevor Knight under center. It’ll be hard to keep Texas A&M in the top-25 next week if they fall to LSU which is likely. It wasn’t that long ago that Texas A&M was 6-0 getting ready for Alabama in a game many thought was the de facto SEC West championship. Then injuries hit & the Aggies have suffered. I hope 8-3 doesn’t finish with 8-5.
#25 Computer Hope The Broncos took care of business against Buffalo this past week blasting the Bulls 38-0 behind QB Zach Terrell’s 445 passing yards & 4TD. WMU improved to 11-0 with their biggest tests on tap. You can make a great case that the two best teams in the MAC outside of WMU are Ohio & Toledo. Western gets Toledo this week & Ohio in the MAC Championship if the Bobcats beat Akron. I think beating Ohio & Toledo adds more credence to Western’s eventual 13-0 record.

DROPPING OUT

#18 WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS: West Virginia had everything to play for against Oklahoma and were playing Morgantown! That should have made a difference. Instead the Mountaineers laid an egg and have been beaten by both Oklahoma St. and Oklahoma. You can certainly make an argument that the only two teams in the Big XII worth a darn are both Oklahoma schools so WVU not being able to beat either is a black mark against them. West Virginia can easily win their final two and wind up 10-2 but the Big XII championship is lost. Getting 10 wins would be a tremendous season, giving WVU a lot of momentum for 2017.

#22 SAN DIEGO ST. AZTECS: Wyoming was able to beat Boise St. as well so the Aztecs falling to the Cowboys shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Just when I have the guts to rank SD State, they let me down with a loss. First to South Alabama. Now to Wyoming. San Diego St. will get a shot at a rematch assuming Wyoming can beat New Mexico next week. The Aztecs already have the Mountain West West locked up and a Wyoming win next week would give the Cowboys the Mountain West East.

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November 21, 2016 - Posted by | Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Boise St., Clemson, Colorado, Florida, Houston, Louisville, LSU, Michigan, NCAA, Nebraska, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Penn St., Power 25, San Diego St., Tennessee, Texas AM, USC, Utah, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington St., Week 12, West Virginia, Western Michigan, Wisconsin

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