2016 NFL FOOTBALL WEEK 4 – BIG GAMES

Getting these out a little bit late so I’m going to keep the comments short & sweet!

AWAY	QUICK THOUGHTS	HOME
	Although I think Cincinnati is a bit better at running the football, the Bengals are throwing an awful lot and this actually works well against Miami whose secondary has been awful thus far this season. The Bengals are at home so I don’t expect them to lose but this is a must win game for them. Pittsburgh & Baltimore are both at home & assuming they defend their home turf, the Bengals can ill afford to fall too far behind those two.
	Absolutely hate football in London but the NFL thinks it’s a good thing so here come the Colts & Jaguars! I don’t know how many more football games Gus Bradley can lose & keep his job. The sad part is that he’s saddled with a QB who throws 20-3o picks a season. You can’t win with that, but Bortles was drafted in 2014 with Bradley in the room so what can he do? On the other hand, the Colts can’t really afford to lose either.
	All you need to know about this game you can find by going back to last week’s Thursday night game between Houston & New England and watch Bill O’Brien seething on the sidelines as Houston took a beating. I don’t know what else will happen but the Texans are laying at least 30 on the Titans & Tennessee is definitely going to play the “wrong place at the wrong time” victim. Houston is going to get loose here.
	A road win over the Giants followed up by a home win against the Browns will put Washington at 2-2 and at worst 1.5 games behind division leader Philadelphia who has a bye week. If Matt Jones keeps improving Washington is going to be difficult to beat. I wonder about the Redskins defense though & it’ll be interesting to see what Cody Kessler does in his 2nd game. He almost beat Miami & the Skins D isn’t quite as effective.
	Seattle fans had to be happy seeing Russell Wilson and the offense breakout last week against the 49ers, but this is a tricky game. The Jets D-Line is arguably the best in the NFL while the Seahawks O-Line is dreadful. If Wilson is already hurt then taking shots from the Jets isn’t going to help matters. Which Ryan Fitzpatrick shows up might determine the winner here, but I’d keep an eye on how many shots Wilson is going to take.
	In Rex Ryan’s first two years with the Jets back in 2009 & 2010, he was 3-2 against Belichick including a divisional playoff game win over New England in 2010. Since then Ryan has gone 1-9 against Belichick! There isn’t much of a rivalry when one team loses 90% of the time, but these coaches couldn’t be more different yet you can tell Ryan has a ton of respect for what Belichick has accomplished. I love this game!
	It would be interesting for the Falcons to win this game & show a new leader in the South, but given how sieve like the defense has been, I get the feeling that Cam Newton is going to run roughshod all over the Falcons on Sunday & even up the division. I’d like to see Falcons rookie safety Keanu Neal put a hit on Newton though. I still think Cam is pretty soft & doesn’t like the wood being laid on him. Neal specializes in that.
	The Ravens at 3-0 is a big surprise, but this might be their first big test. So far Baltimore has beaten the Browns, Jaguars & Bills who have a combined record of 1-8. That’s good news for their prospects because if you want to make the playoffs you need to beat the teams you are supposed to beat. Oakland will pose a very different test for Baltimore, but the Ravens defense is looking awfully good this season. And they are home.
	This is a must win game for the Lions if they want to be a part of the playoff picture. I’m not sure they can drop to 1-3 and still be a factor. Last year the Lions built themselves a pretty big hole they couldn’t climb out of despite going 6-2 in final 8 games. On the other hand, the Bears have to be desperate starting the season 0-3. Jay Cutler is somewhat of a malcontent & rumor has it John Fox wants him gone. That’s a tough locker room.
	Jameis Winston still vacillates between good and bad games, and despite this being a home game, I have a hard time believing Winston is in for a 300yds/4TD performance against the Broncos defense. Doug Martin isn’t playing for Tampa either so a lot of the responsibility to move the football falls on Winston and that’s going to give Denver too many opportunities to force him into mistakes which makes for a Denver win.
	Who would have thought at this time LA would be 2-1 & Arizona 1-2? Given that Arizona just gave up 33 to Buffalo I don’t want to discount the fact that the Rams might be able to move the football so they have a shot. That said, Bruce Arians is a smart guy and at some point he’s going to have to realize that this is David Johnson’s team and not Carson Palmer’s. It’s a passing league I get it, but Arizona needs to run the ball a lot!
	Expect the fireworks to start early & often in this game. I was impressed with San Diego’s defense last week against Indianapolis. If the Chargers don’t make some untimely penalties and give up a couple of big plays, then that game is probably a Bolts blowout. The Chargers, to me, are the most frustrating team in the league. You can see the makings of a dominant team here, but for some reason nothing seems to break their way.
	If only this were 1993……Since beating the Rams 28-0 to start the season, San Francisco has been boat raced by both Carolina & Seattle. Dallas’ defense isn’t quite as good as those two teams so the 49ers may be able to move the ball, but I’ve been saying all year that the more confidence Dak Prescott’s gains, the more difficult it will be to beat the Cowboys. If Dallas is for real, this is the sort of game they’ll win. I have doubts.
	A potential AFC Championship preview! Both Jamaal Charles & Le’Veon Bell make their 2016 NFL debuts Sunday night! Should be a great all around game. Kansas City’s defense has been outstanding thus far and it’ll be interesting to see if they can contain the Steelers defense while simultaneously playing a ball-control offense that keeps Pittsburgh off the field. Great strategy game with contrasting styles & good defense.
	A potential NFC Championship preview! It’s extremely difficult to beat an NFL team when they beat you in TO margin and sack differential. The Vikings have issues on offense. No question. But they are +8 in TO margin & +9 in sack differential. The QBs haven’t thrown a pick and the RBs haven’t committed a fumble. The Giants D-Line will pose a threat but the Vikings defense is going to take advantage of Eli Manning’s risk taking.