No Sleep Till Football

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NCAA Games of Week 15 2013

Championship week! Well, it all comes down to Florida St. against Duke and then Ohio St. against Michigan State. It would seem that if the Buckeyes and Seminoles win they meet in the national championship game, but what could get interesting is if Florida St. or Ohio St. or both win by a very small margin & the Auburn/Missouri winner wins by 20 then all of a sudden chaos could ensue.

I have to admit I’m rooting for chaos! I hope both Florida St. & Ohio St. to lose just to see what happens!

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The MAC Championship! This should be a really good game. Neither team played each other and this should be a solid game featuring strength v. strength! Bowling Green ranks 5th in the nation in scoring defense allowing 13.8PPG. Northern Illinois ranks 9th in scoring offense, scoring 42.8PPG! Neither team is a one trick pony either as Bowling Green is a solid offensive team & the Huskies can play a little defense. Of course the big storyline here is NIU QB Jordan Lynch. He should get an invite to NYC for the Heisman ceremony & of course a win for the Huskies would push them into a BCS bowl where they will likely play in the Fiesta. Lynch has rushed for 1755 yards & 20TD while passing for 2457 yards & 22TD. He’s an amazing story leading this team to a truly historic season. BG should be a decent test, but NIU should roll in this one.
I always think it interesting to remember that one of the reasons Jimmy Johnson left Oklahoma St. for the head coaching job at Miami-FL is that he believed he couldn’t win a national championship in Stillwater. Mike Gundy is seriously challenging that assumption. Back in 2011, Oklahoma St. went into Ames, IA at 10-0 & ranked #2 in the nation. They were 27-point favorites & they drew arch rival Oklahoma in Stillwater. It all seemed ready for a shot at a national championship. LSU had defeated Alabama 9-6 & it looked as if 13-0 LSU would play 12-0 Oklahoma St. for the national championship. Iowa St. didn’t get the memo as ISU won 37-31 in 2OT! OSU would beat the Sooners & win the Fiesta Bowl to finish 12-1 & #3. If OSU wins this game they’ll finish 11-1 & head to the Fiesta. West Virginia will be this year’s version of Iowa St.
Don’t look now but a Texas win combined with an Oklahoma St. loss would give Texas a Big XII championship & a berth in the Fiesta Bowl! Who would have thought that after Texas opened up the season 1-2 with losses to Ole Miss & BYU? The one lone hiccup was 38-13 hammering at the hands of Oklahoma St. in Austin. At 8-3 Texas could lose this game & still win their bowl to finish 9-4 which matches last season’s 9-4 record. A couple of wins to end the season would give Texas their first double digit win season since 2009! Baylor needs help here too. Even if the win, they won’t win the Big XII unless Oklahoma wins. Keep in mind that OU/OSU kicks off at noon while Baylor/Texas starts at 3:30pm! You can bet that both teams will be watching because a Sooner win means this game is winner take all. The Big XII has been exciting in 2013.
Once again Auburn is playing in the most highly anticipated game of the week. Oddly enough, this game sets up almost identically to last week’s Auburn/Alabama game. Missouri’s strength defensively is their rush defense while Auburn’s rush offense is what truly separates them from every other team in the nation. It’s almost impossible to stop as Alabama found out, allowing War Eagle to rush for 296 yards & 2TD! You can’t even say Mizzou has a better offense than Alabama because both are averaging 38.8PPG! The big question is what to do with the winner. Can you really deny a 12-1 SEC champion who’s only loss is either in 2OT to South Carolina or on the road to LSU? Does 2 undefeated teams from inferior conferences really deserve the title game considering the SEC has won the last S-E-V-E-N BCS Championship games?
This is actually rematch of the September 21st game where the Cardinal won at home 42-28. This game is actually at Arizona St. despite it being a conference championship game. Since the loss to Stanford, Arizona St. has gone 8-1 & won their last 7 games. They finished with the best record in the Pac 12 at 8-1. By all accounts this is an amazing season for ASU & Todd Graham. For Stanford, the same can’t be said. This year is almost more disappointing. The Cardinal somewhat backed into the Pac 12 title game thanks to Arizona hammering Oregon. They had two heartbreaking losses to Utah & USC on the road. An extremely physical football team that resembles an SEC squad, I would love to see a Stanford/Alabama or Stanford/Auburn BCS title game. Instead the Cardinal are playing for the Rose Bowl. They could still finish 12-2.
I think what is interesting about this game is looking at the best/worst case records. For Florida St., they’ve dominated everyone by such a wide margin that their best & worst case records are 12-0! For Duke their best case is 11-1 but their worse case is 6-6. This means that Duke is 4-1 in close games while the Noles haven’t played a close game all year. But we shouldn’t mistake Duke for a pansy. They’ve won road games against both Virginia Tech & North Carolina. FSU is BY FAR superior to those teams, but Duke has played in a couple of high pressure situations on the road. They won’t be intimidated. On the other hand, you can’t help but wonder who weak the ACC has to be to see a team like Duke play in the conference title game. I think Florida St. needs to win by 30+ simply to prove a point.
Although I think the Auburn/Missouri game is the most interesting of the weekend, you can’t deny the implications of this game. Ohio St. is in almost an unwinnable situation as they seem to be the target of the SEC instead of Florida State. If Ohio St. squeaks by Michigan St. while Missouri or Auburn beats the other like a drum, the voices are going to be pretty loud pleading for the 1-loss SEC team to face off against Florida St. for the BCS Championship. If Ohio St. wins by 20 points then I think the FSU/OSU championship will seem to have a little more merit although I still think a 12-1 Auburn team would deserve the title shot over either. This game will be a lot like Auburn/Missouri in that we have strength against strength pitting the Spartans defense (#3 in the nation) against the Buckeyes offense (#3 in the nation). Don’t count Sparty out of this one.
Fresno St. really had a chance to bust through the BCS barrier, but lost a thriller 62-52 to San Jose St. dropping them to 10-1 for the season. QB Derek Carr is having a fantastic season for the Bulldogs completing 70.3% of his passes for 4462yds, 45TD & 5INT! I guess if you score 52 points you’d expect to win, but the defense gave up 62 ruining the season for the most part. They still have a shot to win the first ever MWC title game if they can beat the Aggies from Utah State. Although Utah St. is 8-4, they’ve hit stride late in the season winning their last 5 games to get to this spot. I don’t really have a dog in the race, but I did become a Utah St. fan during Gary Andersen’s time there. Plus I hope Derek Carr has a big game as I think he may be the QB to draft in 2014. Should be a fun game if you are up late enough to enjoy it.
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December 6, 2013 - Posted by | Arizona St., Auburn, Baylor, Bowling Green, Duke, Florida St., Fresno St., Michigan St., Missouri, N. Illinois, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Stanford, Texas, Uncategorized, Utah St., Week 15

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