No Sleep Till Football

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20 Teams That Can Win the BCS Championship!?

ESPN is previewing 20 teams they think have an opportunity to win the BCS Championship. It’s 19 plus Ohio State, but the reason Ohio State is listed is because of the math they are using to determine the top-20 teams. Go the link and figure it all out if you want to see how they came up with their conclusions, but color me a bit skeptical when you pick one-sixth of the available college football teams and say you can pretty much guarantee the champion is going to come out of that group. Anybody with any ounce of college football knowledge can pretty much do the same. What is that you ask? Sure I’ll take a stab in the dark and list my 20 teams I think the BCS Champion will come out of. I’ll go by conference.

SEC: Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, Georgia

That’s it. These are the 4 that can get it done. ESPN lists Arkansas, but forget it. That dream died when Bobby Petrino wrecked his motorcycle with a 25-year old woman he was having an affair with. If Petrino would have stuck around, then Arkansas would have a phenomenal chance at winning the BCS title. With him out of the picture, I don’t think John L. Smith gets it done in his absence. ESPN also lists Florida. Forget that too. The Gators are bringing back significant talent especially on defense, but their QB play is horrific. They’ll need to get by SC and Georgia not to mention either LSU or Alabama in the SEC Championship game. It’s not happening.

BIG 10: Michigan

Michigan and that’s it. Forget Ohio State because they aren’t eligible. Wisconsin is going to replace Russell Wilson with Danny O’Brien and the results aren’t going to be the same. Michigan State will lose a game or two because Kirk Cousins isn’t under center. Forget Nebraska. Taylor Martinez can’t hit the broadside of a barn. That will cost the Cornhuskers at least one game. Penn State? Pass. Iowa? Not good enough.

ACC: Florida State, Clemson

Forget Virginia Tech. Sure they have Logan Thomas, but nobody else returns on offense. I don’t think he can carry the entire squad even if Virginia Tech’s defense should be one of the nation’s best. Clemson could get there if they can beat Florida State on the road. Get by the Seminoles and they have both Auburn & South Carolina at home bookending the season. FSU has a ton coming back and the schedule to run the table. If they win the ACC Championship and get to 13-0, it’ll be impossible to keep them out of the BCS Championship game.

PAC 12: USC, Oregon

USC is the odds on favorite to win the national championship and like Florida State, if the Trojans get to 13-0, they’ll play for the national championship. Oregon even without Darron Thomas coming back is simply too strong. They are virtually unbeatable at home and Chip Kelly might be the 2nd best coach in college football behind Nick Saban. Forget Stanford. If the Cardinal couldn’t win the BCS title with Andrew Luck under center, they sure as heck aren’t going to win it with a new face under center. This isn’t Tee Martin & Tennessee back in 1998!

BIG XII: Oklahoma, West Virginia

That’s it. Forget Oklahoma State and Texas. Texas is still struggling with QB play much like Florida and Oklahoma State loses too much on offense. I’m a believer in Mike Gundy, but Oklahoma State is coming off an amazing year and it will be impossible to replicate.

BIG EAST: South Florida

Keep an eye on the Bulls. They have an incredibly talented team and while the schedule isn’t roses, if they can navigate the waters then they’ll come up huge. They get Rutgers and Florida State at home. They do have to play on the road at Louisville, but they have a bye week before that game. Connecticut could be another surprisingly good team this year and South Florida gets them at home as well.

NON-BCS CONFERENCES: None

Forget it. Boise State lost way too much from a year ago. TCU did too and now they are playing in the Big XII. Notre Dame could have QB issues and I don’t think BYU will be a factor.The big reason though for this is that non-BCS teams don’t get opportunities unless they play in South Bend and the Irish aren’t going 12-0 this season.

Each one of my teams is listed in the ESPN top-20 except for South Florida. I also only list a dozen teams instead of 20. If I had to pick 8 more teams I’d go with this:

Arkansas: The talent is there without question. Maybe John L. Smith handles the situation well.
Michigan State: They’ll be great on both O & D lines. If the QB can step in and produce right away, Sparty could be in for a tremendous season.
Virginia Tech: It’s the ACC and Logan Thomas could be in for a Heisman type of year. The defense should be absolutely FILTHY which will keep them in every game they play.
NC State: Tom O’Brien is a good head coach and the Wolfpack have a lot coming back. They get Florida St. at home, but draw Clemson on the road.
Utah: The Utes have went undefeated twice in recent memory and return a ton. They get USC & BYU at home while avoiding Oregon.
Texas: The Longhorns are arguably the most talented team in the nation and get West Virginia at home & Oklahoma in the state of Texas. It won’t be easy, but Mack Brown has proven all he does is win.
Louisville: The Cardinals best case record last year was 12-1 and return almost everyone on a stingy defense. Toughest road game is at Rutgers. Could easily get to 12-0, but Big East undefeated may not be enough.
Notre Dame: Yes I’m a homer, but if ND gets great QB play they can win all the games on their schedule. If they navigate that schedule with a 12-0 mark, it’s guaranteed they’ll be playing for the BCS Championship.

Of those extra 8 teams, only Arkansas, Virginia Tech, and Texas are listed. Remember that schedule plays some role in all of this. It’s why I don’t consider teams like Nebraska, Wisconsin, Florida, Stanford and even a team like Kansas State viable candidates to win the BCS Championship. I’ve got my 20 teams. How about yours?

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May 29, 2012 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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