No Sleep Till Football

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Bad News for Hoosiers Football

In their latest bowl projections, both Mark Schlabach & Andrea Adelson have the following teams from the Big 10 getting to bowl games.

Ohio St.
Michigan St.
Michigan
Iowa
Wisconsin
Penn St.
Illinois
Northwestern
Purdue (Schlabach has Purdue in the Little Ceasar’s Bowl; Adelson doesn’t have them at all)

Schlabach has 9 Big 10 teams. Adelson has 8. The common teams both don’t have going to bowls?

Indiana & Minnesota

I’m not all that surprised. Indiana let a fantastic opportunity slip past them at home when they lost to Michigan. Getting blown out in Columbus to the now #1 ranked team in the nation was a foregone conclusion. The Hoosiers are now witting at 3-2 before they play Arkansas St., which should be a win, but are the tea leaves predicting a 4-8 season from the Hoosiers?

It’s not surprising that Michigan St., Ohio St., Michigan, Wisconsin & Iowa are all unanimous choices from the Big 10 to make a bowl, but Penn St., Illinois, & Northwestern!? Let’s take a look.

Penn St.: Current Record 3-3 (Games Left: @Minny, Michigan, NW, @Ohio St., Indiana, MSU)

Penn St. has to get to 6 wins and there is no way they are beating Ohio St., Michigan State & Michigan. That leaves only Minnesota, Indiana & Northwestern for them to become a bowl eligible 6-6. They do get Michigan at home so maybe they win that, but there is no way Penn St. can be bowl eligible & lose to Indiana.

Northwestern: Current Record 5-1 (Games Left: MSU, @Indiana, @PSU, Iowa, Illinois, @Wisky)

Northwestern just lost to Purdue so who knows. They only have to win 1 more game to get bowl eligible but where is that win coming from? They aren’t going to beat Michigan St., Iowa or Wisconsin. That leaves Penn St., Indiana & Illinois. If Penn St. is bowl eligible then that means the Lions have had to beat Northwestern. That leaves only Illinois & Indiana left for Northwestern to beat to get to 6-6. If Illinois hammered Penn St. in Pennsylvania & people believe Illinois & Penn St. are going to the bowls, then that only leaves Indiana for Northwestern to beat to get to 6-6.

Illinois: Current Record 3-2 (Games Left: @MSU, IU, Purdue, @Michigan, Minny, NW, @Fresno)

Illinois has to win 3 games in their last 7 to get bowl eligible. They aren’t going to beat Michigan St. & Michigan which means they need to win 3 of their games against Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern & Fresno St. Assuming they beat both Northwestern & Minnesota that would leave Illinois 5-4 needing a 1-2 record against Indiana, Purdue & Fresno St. It’s possible Indiana could beat Illinois, but the problem for me is that they play the Illini on the road. That fact alone inclines me to think Indiana loses to Illinois. Heck, Illinois has a schedule that could see them finish 8-4.

Purdue: Current Record 3-2 (Games Left: Minny, @OSU, @Illinois, Wisky, Michigan, @MSU, IU)

Purdue is like Illinois needing to go 3-4 to get bowl eligible. I don’t think Purdue beats Ohio St., Wisconsin, Michigan or Michigan St. The Illinois game is a little dicey, but if Mark Schlabach is right in that Purdue gets bowl eligible then they have to beat Minnesota, Indiana & Illinois. That’s it. That means Illinois is almost certain to beat Indiana to maintain their bowl eligibility. If you think Illinois beats Purdue then Andre Adelson is probably right in thinking Purdue doesn’t make it to a bowl because they’d finish 5-7 & one game on the outside looking in. No matter what though, Indiana has to be an automatic win for the Boilermakers should Purdue make a run at a bowl.

What does mean for Indiana football? It means that 2010 isn’t the year Indiana gets to a bowl no matter how hard the university is trying to convince their fans to the contrary. This year Indiana has a 5th year senior QB in Ben Chappell & next year will be essentially breaking in a new QB in either Dusty Kiel or Edward Wright-Baker. They should have all of their skill position players back although I suppose it’s within the realm of possibility for receivers like Tandon Doss & Demarlo Belcher to think about going to the NFL. They’ll both be in Indiana next season, but with a new inexperienced QB. After 2011 Indiana will lose both Doss, Belcher & TE Max Dedmond.

With that in mind it’s hard to figure Indiana makes a bowl in 2011 because Chappell will be gone. It’s hard to think they’ll make a bowl in 2012 because their skill position players will be gone. That means that the earliest Indiana can potentially play in a bowl game would be 2013, but who knows even then with the way things change in college football.

It’s hard to come up with a conclusion that allows one to think the university knows what it is doing with the football program.

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October 11, 2010 - Posted by | Big 10, Indiana

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