No Sleep Till Football

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There Go the Bengals Playoff Chances

ESPN is reporting that the Cincinnati Bengals & locker room cancer/constant malcontent Terrell Owens have agreed to a 1-year/$2 million deal. Clearly the Bengals don’t want to win a championship this season. They weren’t going to anyway with the Baltimore Ravens in their own division not to mention teams like Indianapolis, New England & San Diego within their conference, but adding Owens pretty much guarantees the Bengals will finish in 3rd place this season behind both Baltimore & Pittsburgh. Owens could receive $4MM if he reaches incentives, but Chad Ochocinco doesn’t get the ball enough as it is. Now the Bengals will have Antonio Bryant & Jermaine Greshem not to mention Cedric Benson & Bernard Scott. Where are the receptions?

I’m glad to see the Rams & Jets pass. Owens would have certainly ruined both Sam Bradford & Mark Sanchez. On the other hand, I’m pretty fond of Carson Palmer and I hope Owens doesn’t ruin him as well. Maybe the Bengals think Owens will be alright. If they can put up with #85 then maybe putting up with T.O. won’t be that much different.

On a different angle, how productive can Owens possibly be? He’s numbers have decreased over the last 3 seasons and he’s going to be a 37-year old WR in 2010. Owens is a Hall of Fame WR. There isn’t much debate about that question. Here is where Owens ranks all-time in certain categories:

Receptions: 6th (Should pass Isaac Bruce for #5 all time in 2010)
Receiving Yards: 3rd (Should pass Bruce for #2 all time in 2010)
Receiving TD: 3rd
Receiving Yds/Game: 10th
All Purpose Yds: 24th (With a 1,000 yards season can get into top-15)
Total TD: 5th

That’s a career. Owens is at the 3rd best receiver on the Bengals right now that will wanted to be treated like the #1WR. The age-37 season bothers me though. Jerry Rice had solid seasons until he was 40-years old. Marvin Harrison’s last season in the NFL was his age-36 season. Cris Carter’s last solid season in the NFL was his age-36 season. The same is true of Tim Brown. Isaac Bruce tells the same story. Andre Reed’s last good season was age-35. Art Monk fell off after his age-34 season.

Who are the top-10 receivers in receptions all time?

1. Jerry Rice
2. Marvin Harrison
3. Cris Carter
4. Tim Brown
5. Isaac Bruce
6. Terrell Owens
7. Andre Reed
8. Art Monk
9. Randy Moss
10. Torry Holt

Moss & Holt are in their early-30s, but what every receiver on that list has in common is that outside of Jerry Rice, all of them were done by age-36. If you go to Pro Football Focus and look at their WR metrics, you’ll find that there were 107 wide receivers last season that took at least 25% of their team’s snaps. Terrell Owens ranked 97th of 107! The numbers get even worse if you look at ALL RECEIVERS! If you count every WR who took at least 1 snap in 2009, you find there were 183 WRs last year in the NFL. Owens ranked 173rd! That means in the entire NFL there were only 10 wideouts worse than Owens.

Every receiver on the Bengals roster was better than Owens according to Pro Football Focus. The closest to Owens was Laveranues Coles who was significantly better according to the advanced metrics.

Basically the question boils down to whether or not you think Terrell Owens can be another Jerry Rice or whether he’ll be like every other receiver who has played in the NFL? I guess the Bengals think it’s worth $2MM to find out if it’s the former. But given the baggage, why would you want to?

Hasn’t Carson Palmer suffered enough?

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July 27, 2010 - Posted by | Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals, Terrell Owens

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